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November U.S. natural gas prices increased beyond previous market expectations

(Fri, 07 Dec 2018) On November 23, the natural gas spot price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana was $4.70 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the highest price since a temporary spike in January 2018, and before that, the highest price since June 2014. The relatively sudden increase in prices exceeded the expectation of many market participants, based on the prices and volatility of futures and options contracts at the beginning of November. Prices have come down slightly in the past week, but they remain at a higher level than during much of the past four years.

EPA finalizes Renewable Fuel Standard for 2019, reflecting cellulosic biofuel shortfalls

(Thu, 06 Dec 2018) On November 30, 2018, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a final rule for the 2019 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program, with the total U.S. renewable fuel volume requirement set 3% higher than the 2018 mandate, but nearly 30% lower than the statutory volume standards set forth by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007).

U.S. coal consumption in 2018 expected to be the lowest in 39 years

(Tue, 04 Dec 2018) EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U.S. coal consumption has been falling since its peak in 2007, and EIA forecasts that 2018 coal consumption will be 437 MMst (44%) lower than 2007 levels, mainly driven by declines in coal use in the electric power sector.

Japan has restarted five nuclear power reactors in 2018

(Wed, 28 Nov 2018) Shikoku Electric Power Co. restarted the 890 megawatt (MW) Ikata-3 reactor in Japan’s Ehime Prefecture at the end of October, the fifth nuclear reactor in Japan to be restarted in 2018. Japan had suspended its nuclear fleet in 2013 for mandatory safety checks and upgrades following the 2011 Fukushima accident, and before 2018 only four reactors had been restarted.

Analysis of Octane Costs

(Wed, 28 Nov 2018) The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned a two-phase study to examine the possible changes in U.S. refinery operations that might be causing the increasing price differential between premium gasoline and regular retail gasoline prices since 2010.

High gasoline inventories help drive U.S. refining margins to five-year lows

(Tue, 27 Nov 2018) Flattening year-over-year growth in gasoline demand in the United States, combined with high levels of refinery output, have contributed to low or negative motor gasoline refining margins for refiners along the East and Gulf Coasts. Gasoline refining margins—the difference between the spot price of gasoline and the Brent crude oil spot price—have been on a downward trend since August, and these margins have been at some of their lowest October and November levels in the past five years.

Thanksgiving and Black Friday have unique electricity demand patterns

(Tue, 20 Nov 2018) Hourly electricity usage on Thanksgiving and the following day (Black Friday) tend to have different demand patterns from other weekdays. On a typical weekday in November, electricity usage tends to have two peaks: a morning peak and a slightly higher evening peak. On Thanksgiving, electricity demand tends to be highest late morning, as families cook meals and gather to celebrate the holiday. And because most businesses are closed, overall electricity demand on Thanksgiving Day tends to be lower.

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