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(Mon, 26 Mar 2018) This first Issue in Focus article from the <em>Annual Energy Outlook 2018</em> (AEO2018), future growth in U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is projected to be driven by the development of tight oil and shale gas resources. However, future domestic tight oil and shale gas production depends on the quality of the resources, the evolution of technological and operational improvements, and market prices, all of which are highly uncertain. This article provides background on the analysis of the estimated ultimate recovery per well (EUR), a key assumption underlying the projections, and it provides a detailed discussion of the sensitivity of results across AEO2018 cases.